Reading a quantum roadmap: targets and evidence

Reported evidence

What the sources report

IBM’s announcement set a target for Starling by 2029: circuits with 100 million quantum gates on 200 logical qubits. These were the issuer’s future targets.

The earlier Nature paper reports numerical simulations of quantum memory under a circuit-based noise model. It is a different evidence category from a hardware demonstration.

IBM’s announcement distinguishes protected memory from the additional capabilities needed for computation.

Sources: [1] [2]

Our interpretation

Investor relevance — interpretation

A useful reading checklist starts with the dated target, identifies what kind of evidence supports it, and asks what further result would demonstrate the promised capability.

Read a memory study for what it measures. Its findings do not by themselves establish a complete working computer.

Sources: [1] [2]

Our interpretation

What this does not establish

These historical sources do not establish Starling’s current progress, delivery or commercial availability. The memory paper is not independent confirmation of the issuer’s delivery forecast.

Sources: [1] [2]

Background

Evidence date and disclosure

Evidence event date: 2025-06-10. AI-assisted; drafted and then reviewed against reopened primary sources in separate AI passes. IBM is the interested issuer; the Nature authors disclose IBM affiliations and a related patent application. The publisher may hold positions in companies covered; see Disclosures. This is not a current progress assessment.

Sources: [1] [2]