IBM, Atom Computing and Diraq join DARPA's final stage; only Diraq names an initial amount

Reported evidence

What the sources report

DARPA says four more organizations have advanced to Stage C, the final stage of its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI). The program seeks to determine whether any quantum computing approach can reach utility-scale operation, meaning its computational value exceeds its cost, by 2033.

DARPA lists Atom Computing (neutral atoms), Diraq (silicon CMOS spin qubits), IBM (modular superconducting processors) and IonQ (trapped ions). They join Microsoft and PsiQuantum, which reached Stage C through an earlier pilot program, US2QC.

In Stage C, DARPA's government evaluation team will work alongside the companies to test whether their proposed utility-scale systems can be built as designed and operated as intended. DARPA says QBI is not a competition and is not intended to pick winners and losers.

IBM's release gives no dollar figure. It quotes Jay Gambetta, Director of IBM Research: “IBM expects to deliver the first fault-tolerant system in 2029.” IBM calls that planned computer IBM Quantum Starling.

Atom Computing says the stage carries potential funding of up to $300 million. It says Microsoft has agreed to provide algorithmic support and error-correction codes to Atom Computing as part of the program.

Diraq cites funding of up to US$300 million and says an initial US$51 million tranche will support the next year of its work. It sets out its own targets: 150,000 qubits by 2029 and utility scale by 2031, with more than 2 million physical qubits on a single chip.

IonQ, covered in a separate brief, reported a Stage C agreement with a potential value of up to $300 million. It says funding beyond the initial obligation depends on future appropriations and DARPA funding actions.

Sources: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

Our interpretation

Investor relevance — interpretation

The selections are confirmed by DARPA. The dollar figures are not: each comes from a company release, and the largest are ceilings marked “up to.” Three companies cite the same $300 million ceiling, but DARPA's release states no amount.

Diraq's US$51 million is the most concrete figure because it names an amount for a defined period. Even so, its release does not say how or when the money is paid, or what conditions apply to later funds.

IBM describes itself as a hybrid cloud, AI and business services provider. Quantum computing is one part of that business, so a Stage C selection says little about IBM's overall results.

The four entrants use four different qubit technologies. DARPA says it is evaluating each path on its own merits, so the list is not a ranking of approaches. DARPA also expects more companies to advance to Stage C in the near future.

Useful next evidence would be DARPA's published test results and funded amounts in signed agreements or company filings. Selection alone does not answer those questions.

Sources: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

Our interpretation

What this does not establish

Stage C starts the testing; it is not a test result. None of these releases reports results from Stage C testing, and no executed agreement was inspected.

Funding ceilings, the initial tranche and Microsoft's role come only from the companies. Atom Computing's subheading says the stage “awards up to $300 million”; its body text calls this “potential funding.”

Dates such as IBM's 2029 system and Diraq's 2029 and 2031 goals are company targets. Diraq's statement that it will reach utility scale two years ahead of the QBI schedule is its own projection, not a DARPA finding. This brief does not forecast share prices or recommend an investment.

Sources: [1] [2] [3] [4]

Background

Evidence date and disclosure

Evidence event date: 2026-10-07. The original DARPA, IBM, Atom Computing, Diraq and IonQ announcements were opened on 2026-10-14. DARPA's October 7 release independently confirms the selections, the program's goal and the purpose of Stage C. Funding amounts, roadmap targets and partner roles come from the companies, which have an interest in how their progress is presented. Diraq's release is dated October 8 on its website. The publisher may hold positions in companies covered; see Disclosures.

Sources: [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]