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Research desk / Claims to evidence

What changed. What still needs proof.

Keep the original claim beside its evidence, limits and dated follow-up.

Record reviewed

Three selected records, not continuous monitoring or a complete sector survey. An access date does not mean every later development was assessed.

Program selection · Original claim

IonQ enters DARPA's final evaluation stage

The original claim

IonQ announced selection for Stage C of DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative.

IonQ

Evidence in this record

DARPA separately named IonQ among the selected entrants. Its description says the government team will test whether proposed systems can be built and perform as intended.

DARPA

What remains unproven here

Entry into evaluation does not establish a completed utility-scale computer. The issuer's potential agreement value is conditional on funding actions and appropriations; this record does not establish recognized revenue or guaranteed proceeds. The original agreement and initial obligation were not inspected.

DARPA · IonQ

Next evidence to look for

Look for released evaluation outcomes and documented system performance. Financial recognition requires separate financial evidence.

Editorial follow-up question, not a promised outcome.

Update history
  1. Issuer announcement and agency selection notice published.

    IonQ · DARPA

  2. Both original notices checked for this entry. Selection and a completed performance result remain separate.

    IonQ · DARPA

Read the company profile →

Issuer target · Original claim

IBM Starling: the original system target

Original target year: 2029 · Target, not an achieved date

The original claim

IBM's June 2025 roadmap targeted Starling for 2029: 200 logical qubits and circuits of 100 million quantum gates.

IBM Quantum

Evidence in this record

The original roadmap describes the proposed architecture and intermediate work needed to build the system. It establishes the issuer's target, not delivery of that target.

IBM Quantum

What remains unproven here

This entry checks the original announcement. It does not assess every subsequent IBM milestone or independently establish a delivered Starling system. Logical memory alone is insufficient for universal fault-tolerant computation.

IBM Quantum

Next evidence to look for

Look for a dated system demonstration with logical operations, circuit depth, error rates and complete operating conditions.

Editorial follow-up question, not a promised outcome.

Update history
  1. Original system target and architecture published.

    IBM Quantum

  2. Original target preserved in this record. No later delivery assessment added.

    IBM Quantum

Read the company profile →

Research result · Original claim

Willow: a memory result, with a figure correction

The original claim

Google Quantum AI and collaborators reported below-threshold surface-code memories: increasing the tested code distance suppressed logical memory errors under the experiment's conditions.

Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators

Evidence in this record

The paper reports an error-corrected memory experiment. The later correction changes Figure 3a's repetition-code axis and legend labels; it does not state that the main surface-code result is retracted.

Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators · Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators

What remains unproven here

Preserving encoded information is different from running a useful fault-tolerant application. This entry does not establish independent replication, commercial advantage or profitability.

Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators

Next evidence to look for

Look for independent replication and reliable logical operations in a complete computation, with an appropriate comparison.

Editorial follow-up question, not a promised outcome.

Update history
  1. Original Nature result published.

    Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators

  2. Author correction published for the repetition-code figure axis and legend.

    Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators

  3. Paper and correction considered together for this record.

    Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators · Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators

Read the company profile → · Explore the memory result →

Original sources

Publication dates and access dates describe different events. A rebuild does not refresh this record.

  1. IonQ Advances to Final Stage of DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative ↗

    IonQ · Published · Accessed

    Issuer announcement; funding conditions apply

  2. Four more teams enter Quantum Benchmarking Initiative final stage ↗

    DARPA · Published · Accessed

    Program agency; independent of the issuer

  3. How IBM will build the world's first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer ↗

    IBM Quantum · Published · Accessed

    primary issuer; not independent corroboration

  4. Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold ↗

    Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators · Published · Accessed

    primary research

  5. Author Correction: Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold ↗

    Nature; Google Quantum AI and Collaborators · Published · Accessed

    primary research